The Polls Underestimated Again. Nobody Why.
Wed November 25, 2020, x:23 AM
538 "Could Social Alienation Amidst Some Trump Supporters Help Explain Why Polls Underestimated Trump
(posting with no personal comment - just something interesting to read as pollsters try to figure out why they sucked again- whoops - that was a personal comment!)
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/could-social-alienation-amid-some-trump-supporters-help-explain-why-polls-underestimated-trump-again/
Donald Trump was again underestimated by the polls.
On the 1 hand, this polling error is fairly normal. We�re not talking about huge polling misses, and the polls all the same �called� the election correctly: Joe Biden won. But that said, information technology does seem as if polls are still failing to capture some of Trump�s support.
There are a number of possible explanations for this, and no definitive answers, merely i affair I�ve come up across in my public opinion enquiry is that the share of Americans who are more than socially disconnected from society is on the ascension. And these voters disproportionately back up Trump.
The idea that some of Trump�s supporters are more likely to be asunder from civic life is hardly a new one. During the 2016 Republican primary, Yoni Appelbaum at The Atlantic noted that Trump was drawing support unduly from those who said they were civically disengaged. An analysis by Emily Ekins of the bourgeois-leaning Cato Institute constitute that despite Trump�southward continued strong support amidst white evangelical Protestants, he was actually viewed more positively by supporters who weren�t involved in regular religious exercise. Finally, inquiry on the 2016 election past David Shor, a Democratic pollster, echoed what nosotros institute in our own pre-ballot 2020 survey: In that location was a large swing to Trump among white voters who had depression levels of social trust � a grouping that researchers accept found is also less likely to participate in telephone surveys.
In our pre-election survey on the forcefulness of Americans� social networks, we institute that about one in five Americans (17 percent) reported having no one they were close with, marker a nine percent signal increase from 2013.1 What�southward more, we institute that these socially asunder voters were far more than likely to view Trump positively and support his reelection than those with more robust personal networks. Biden was heavily favored by registered voters with larger social networks (53 percent to 37 percentage), but information technology was Trump who had the edge amongst voters without any close social contacts (45 percent to 39 percent).
And this was particularly true among white voters even subsequently accounting for differences in income, education level, and racial attitudes. Sixty percent of white voters without anyone in their immediate social network favored Trump, compared to less than half (46 percent) of white voters with more robust social ties.
snip
final para
A lot of fourth dimension volition be spent over the next few years trying to explain the country�southward growing social, economic and political problems, simply we should not forget that political reforms and economical fixes are not going to address more fundamental problems of loneliness and social isolation in this country. And that may mean we increasingly take less insight into how a growing portion of the country feels.
41 replies, 1329 views
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 41 replies | Author | Time | Post |
| | NRaleighLiberal | Nov 2020 | OP |
| | TexasBushwhacker | Nov 2020 | #1 |
| | Ninga | Nov 2020 | #2 |
| | jimfields33 | Nov 2020 | #3 |
| | Silent3 | November 2020 | #half-dozen |
| | jimfields33 | Nov 2020 | #seven |
| | Captain Zero | November 2020 | #22 |
| | jimfields33 | Nov 2020 | #28 |
| | Drunken Irishman | November 2020 | #37 |
| | RazzleCat | Nov 2020 | #4 |
| | NRaleighLiberal | Nov 2020 | #5 |
| | Silent3 | Nov 2020 | #eight |
| | radius777 | November 2020 | #41 |
| | dalton99a | Nov 2020 | #9 |
| | uponit7771 | November 2020 | #31 |
| | Roisin Ni Fiachra | November 2020 | #ten |
| | brooklynite | Nov 2020 | #11 |
| | Mariana | Nov 2020 | #13 |
| | brooklynite | Nov 2020 | #18 |
| | Klaralven | Nov 2020 | #12 |
| | TheBlackAdder | Nov 2020 | #14 |
| | LonePirate | Nov 2020 | #15 |
| | gulliver | Nov 2020 | #16 |
| | bullwinkle428 | Nov 2020 | #17 |
| | Tribetime | November 2020 | #19 |
| | BadDog40 | Nov 2020 | #20 |
| | BannonsLiver | Nov 2020 | #27 |
| | triron | Nov 2020 | #21 |
| | crickets | November 2020 | #26 |
| | fearnobush | Nov 2020 | #23 |
| | fearnobush | Nov 2020 | #25 |
| | Yavin4 | November 2020 | #24 |
| | Dawson Leery | November 2020 | #29 |
| | Midnight Author | Nov 2020 | #30 |
| | uponit7771 | Nov 2020 | #32 |
| | mathematic | Nov 2020 | #33 |
| | uponit7771 | November 2020 | #34 |
| | applegrove | Nov 2020 | #35 |
| | JI7 | Nov 2020 | #36 |
| | Drunken Irishman | November 2020 | #38 |
| | Buckeyeblue | November 2020 | #39 |
| | scrabblequeen40 | Nov 2020 | #40 |
538 "Could Social Alienation Among Some Trump Supporters Help Explain Why Polls Underestimated Trump (Original post)
I recall it'due south as simple as typical polling errors.Response to NRaleighLiberal (Original post)
Wed November 25, 2020, 10:34 AM
Ninga (seven,771 posts)
2. These "socially and civically" disengaged and ignorant
people need to learn that it wasn�t George Washington
that got them their Social Security and Medicare and eight hour workday and clean h2o and prophylactic food and medicine and more than, it was the Democrats!
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Response to Ninga (Respond #2)
Wed November 25, 2020, 10:38 AM
jimfields33 (9,009 posts)
3. It'due south funny. They will throw a lot of reasons why polls were off and see if something sticks.
I think the main reason is nobody answers their phones unless they know the person. That�south really the chief reason.
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Response to jimfields33 (Reply #3)
Wed Nov 25, 2020, ten:47 AM
Silent3 (12,114 posts)
six. "nobody answers their phones" does Not explain the difference unless...
...there'due south a political correlation with the likelihood of responding to a poll, and being truthful if you practise respond. That political correlation is what this article is talking about.
If non wanting to reply your phone were a politically neutral behavior, it would have no effect on polling results at all.
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Response to jimfields33 (Reply #iii)
Wed Nov 25, 2020, xi:59 AM
22. The AP poll was conducted with a postcard contact first, not a phone phone call.
to the accost of a registered voter. I know because we got ane.
A big postcard addressed to whatever registered voter at the address.
I scratched off a pin number, so went online and entered the pin number to participate.
Another way to participate was to call an 800 number, use the pin, and take the survey over the telephone.
So if people were as well socially disengaged to do that, or too HOSTILE to pollsters to do that, and so that could skew the results.
Socially engaged people will take the initiative to follow up and be surveyed, others, perchance not so much.
How many people let the obvious advertising post similar 6x9 postcards pile up somewhere too?
I do at times.
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Response to jimfields33 (Reply #3)
Thu November 26, 2020, 03:22 AM
37. I think information technology's as simple every bit typical polling errors.
In 1996, polls had Bill Clinton winning reelection by a landslide. The final CNN/U.s. Today tracking poll had Clinton beating Dole 51-35. THAT was a monster polling error. Read this article and tell me if it couldn't have been lifted from 2020:
https://academic.oup.com/poq/article-abstract/62/two/230/1891100?redirectedFrom=PDF
Polls were too wrong in 1980. They had Carter and Reagan in a dead heat only Reagan won by a large margin.
Polls were off in 1980, 1996, some were off in 2000, 2012, 2016 and 2020.
The big difference with polls in 1980, 1996 and 2012, compared to 2020, was that the polling shift didn't modify the expectations too much. Nearly thought Reagan would win - but not past the margin he did. Virtually thought Clinton would sheet to reelection, but were surprised the polls had his margin much larger than it was (still, he won comfortably), and near thought Obama was going to win reelection but didn't fully expect it to exist equally like shooting fish in a barrel as it turned out to be.
The difference with 2020? The way we counted the ballots.
Had it been a normal election, like 2016, Biden is alleged the winner on ballot night and wins fairly handily across the board. So, the polling error doesn't seem every bit large of an effect. Only because PA, WI and MI all forced a mirage come from backside win for Biden, it built this narrative the race was shut.
it wasn't really close.
That's my accept, anyway!
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Response to NRaleighLiberal (Original post)
Wednesday November 25, 2020, 10:44 AM
iv. Interesting, but I think all polls are "off"
because nosotros no longer answer our phones. Recollect most it, polls are done via phone, when was the last time you answered you phone when it was "unknown caller"? I will posit that unless you were job hunting, or were expecting a call from an bureau, persons etc that you don't know (say a doctor, or an date conformation), you never picked up your phone to any person conducting a poll.
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Response to RazzleCat (Respond #4)
Wednesday November 25, 2020, x:46 AM
NRaleighLiberal (56,188 posts)
5. Agreed - 538 did a podcast on this recently, noting the horrendous percentage of poll respondants vs
those contacted. To me, it makes the outcomes pretty useless.
And, sitting hither at 64, my wife and I both noted neither 1 of us has e'er been polled!
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Response to RazzleCat (Reply #four)
Wed November 25, 2020, 10:53 AM
Silent3 (12,114 posts)
8. Once again, as I just said to some else, not answering the telephone doesn't explain this...
...if non answering the telephone is a politically neutral behavior. If lots of people won't respond, and that's all there is to information technology, you just make a lot more calls until y'all attain your desired sample size. Problem solved.
The whole indicate of the article quoted in the OP is that lack of response (and besides possibly dishonesty in response) probably isn't politically neutral. Pollsters could adjust to this by adjusting their polling models, but the skewed lack of response which is the problem that needs to be understood is difficult to measure by its own nature.
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Response to Silent3 (Answer #8)
Thu Nov 26, 2020, 10:46 AM
41. If a very small group (five%) of people participate in polls,
and then that group is atypical in at least that behavior, and likely to be singular (and unrepresentative) politically as well.
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Response to NRaleighLiberal (Original post)
Midweek Nov 25, 2020, 10:56 AM
Roisin Ni Fiachra (2,020 posts)
10. This is an unsolvable problem. Too many unchangeable negative factors
contribute to this unfortunate phenomenon in the US.
"The most dangerous creation of any society is the person who has nothing to lose." - James Baldwin
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Response to Mariana (Reply #13)
Midweek Nov 25, 2020, xi:31 AM
brooklynite (76,600 posts)
xviii. That would show in the raw information...
It'south actually difficult to prevarication assuredly over time. It requires more than just saying "I'm voting for Biden"; you accept to respond questions on personal opinion of candidates, office holders not up for re-ballot, by voting history, policy positions etc.
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Response to NRaleighLiberal (Original post)
Wed Nov 25, 2020, 11:thirteen AM
TheBlackAdder (22,778 posts)
xiv. They are very alienated. That'due south why they are living in a chimera.
.
.
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Response to NRaleighLiberal (Original mail)
Wednesday November 25, 2020, 11:14 AM
LonePirate (12,043 posts)
15. Pollsters simply underestimated how likely the deplorables were to vote.
They had a sky high turnout rate, especially in rural and red areas. It explains how several Dem Business firm members lost and how some Dem Senate candidates lost, not to mention the state legislature seat losses.
Still, 2024 will probable return to more usual levels of turnout (similar 2012 rates) without 45 on the ticket. The real question will exist how 2022 turns out. Will it be more like 2006 or 2018 or more similar 2014? Good Dem results in 2022 will foretell good results in 2024.
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Response to NRaleighLiberal (Original post)
Midweek Nov 25, 2020, eleven:23 AM
gulliver (11,943 posts)
sixteen. I'm non sure why anyone would think random polls should even work today.
The sources of the data consume the data. The sources have a significant agreement of how their responses will play out in the media. Therefore, the answers are not random and independent. They are strategic. And the poll results feed dorsum to the organization, changing the strategies of the poll sources.
People can and do deliberately misconstrue polls with their answers. Reporting on polls is abysmal, because it naively takes the validity of "scientific" polls at face value. Therefore, the polls merely become some other football game in the information/misinformation football game game.
It seems to me that real polling is going to crave defended, honest, incentivized data sources. Mayhap that will work. You agree to be polled on your prison cell. You hold to exist honest. The pollster doesn't necessarily know your identity. You go coin in your PayPal when you reply. Y'all lose your spot in the polling lineup if statistics about your response tape show yous lie and play games.
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Response to NRaleighLiberal (Original post)
Wed Nov 25, 2020, eleven:28 AM
bullwinkle428 (20,259 posts)
17. I'yard an introvert by nature, and the pandemic has increased the measure that
I've felt socially alienated to a greater caste than I've ever been in my life. Having said that, my cloy for that creature has just grown since the beginning of "abnormal life".
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Response to NRaleighLiberal (Original post)
Wed Nov 25, 2020, xi:33 AM
xix. I still call up voter suppression had a lot to do with information technology
My mail and had to vote in person and a lot of democratic areas that were more than populated didn't have plenty polling places for early voting. I know in Cleveland Cuyahoga County that Biden underperformed Hillary which is really hard for me to believe.
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Response to BadDog40 (Reply #xx)
Wed Nov 25, 2020, 01:18 PM
27. It's really not that simple, though.
That explains some of it. Maybe. Simply it�s well beyond the time that we all accept the fact there are millions of Americans who are rotten to their core and who have no redeeming qualities whatsoever. Totally unreachable and too far gone even if y'all could. They�re out there, just like the article says.
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Response to NRaleighLiberal (Original post)
Wed Nov 25, 2020, 12:20 PM
23. Ths sounds like more excuse reaching. Simple answer is we don't know why yet.
And may never know. For example why did Obama outperform all the polls in 2012 past a similar margin? Why were 2018 midterms so authentic. Polls are just that polls and they volition be off with in the margins of error.
That being said my ain idea is that in 2020 With a pandemic and non a whole lot to exist distracted by, voting became a �pandemic� action thus many more low propensity voters came out and voted possibly muddying upwardly the expected outcome.
Joe and Kamala volition won by 4.iii - iv.7 % nationwide. That�due south well with in the expected margins with in their polling boilerplate of around 8%.
Dems won at to the lowest degree one Senate seat only lost at least 10 in the business firm.
This seems odd just not really. The wins in the 2018 midterms were at about the most they could actually win given the decades of puke gerrymandered Business firm districts. So information technology kind of makes sense to lose races at the tightest of margins in 2020 with PresidentIal candidates on the tickets
.
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Response to fearnobush (Respond #23)
Wednesday Nov 25, 2020, 12:26 PM
25. Likewise I don't call up defund had as big a roll equally the M$M plays that out to exist.
Thought it probable had some result in some lost firm races. I think this was an election where the electorate hated Trump but chose divided authorities due to over all distrust in authorities.
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Response to NRaleighLiberal (Original mail)
Wed November 25, 2020, 12:25 PM
24. Trump's team knew near the Social Alienation variable
Late stage capitalism has increased social breach and isolation. Our American culture is built around work. Piece of work defines you and gives you lot an identity. Today, work does that less and less which leads to feelings of alienation. Information technology's hard to discover pride in yourself when yous're an Uber driver.
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Response to NRaleighLiberal (Original mail)
Wed Nov 25, 2020, 01:54 PM
29. Trump made his way in live appealing to those who believe they were given a bad mitt in life.
It's the moniker of demagogues to place mistake with some evil cabal that cannot exist conspicuously defined.
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Response to NRaleighLiberal (Original postal service)
Midweek Nov 25, 2020, 04:12 PM
Midnight Author (14,880 posts)
xxx. Hate Radio has been telling listeners to prevarication to pollsters, over and over every day.
We underestimate the impact of Hate Radio in rural areas.
There are tens of millions of dedicated Detest Radio fans out there, who worship the words of cranks similar Limbaugh, Hannity, etc.
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Response to NRaleighLiberal (Original post)
Wed Nov 25, 2020, 04:24 PM
uponit7771 (83,036 posts)
32. **BULL FUCKIN SHIT!** NO Other Country Has Polling This Bad !!! Down Ballot Polling was HORRIBLE ...
Last edited Midweek Nov 25, 2020, 05:42 PM - Edit history (one)
... and other countries accept cell phone usage in higher percentages than Americans and polling is more than accurate so its not that either.
Either our polling is off or our voting is off PERIOD!!!
Silver is trying to save his task with baseless guessing vs going after the polling companies for explanations on how they got down ballots so fucked up.
No ... fuck no, in that location's something wrong with something in the US in regards to our elections figures and the shit didn't first to go highly irregular until after 2004 ish.
Get THE POLLING COMPANIES IN THE HOT SEAT and stop the baseless guessing
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Response to uponit7771 (Reply #32)
Wed Nov 25, 2020, 05:ten PM
33. This is literally an explanation for how polling companies "fucked upwardly"
Somehow you lot managed to turn an explanation for why the polls were wrong into a demand for explanations on why the polls were wrong.
Furthermore, this is non "baseless" guessing (nor was it even written by nate silvery or 538 staff). At its core, this explanation is that poll non-responders are overwhelmingly supportive of trump. Accounting for this would represent a meaningful change in how polls are conducted. However there's no clear way to mostly account for the political preferences of people that don't respond to polls.
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Response to mathematic (Reply #33)
Wed Nov 25, 2020, 05:31 PM
uponit7771 (83,036 posts)
34. No its not, no polling visitor gave this caption to Silvers he'due south guessing. Menses
As well
Then ignore the "other countries" part correct?
All variables we're dealing with other countries are dealing with also and don't become it this off for this long tilted towards i party.
I literally made the point in the reply that the country that had the most prizes for sciences is most off in polling ... science.... for nearly a generation of humans and social alienation doesn't explain it either seeing it could've been weighted for PROPERLY from become.
None of what Silvers proffers explains how downwards ballot polling was so ... VERY VERY VERY ... off either all over the country.
The estimate is groundless seeing nosotros're the simply developed state facing those variables on the planet with down ballot polling. Of grade Silvers is going to focus on useless national polling vs the HORRID swing state polling that was exhibited.
"We're "
that" unique" logic would exist the Aforementioned logic MAGAs use in regards to U.s.a. COVID response and corporeality of cases too so the company this logic sits in is not adept from the get.
No, its this countries polling and we're keen country full of stupid liars either ... that's giving the polling companies a pass too.
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Response to NRaleighLiberal (Original mail service)
Thu Nov 26, 2020, 03:14 AM
applegrove (105,576 posts)
35. A campaign to prevarication continuously to MSM polling firms and say they were
voting for Biden instead of what they did which was vote for Trump, well that would mess up the polls twice every bit fast or accept half as many liars.
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Response to NRaleighLiberal (Original post)
Thu November 26, 2020, 03:17 AM
JI7 (86,062 posts)
36. Polls were non all off. Biden campaign managing director said that things were shut
in swing states. That they were not ahead by a lot.
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Response to NRaleighLiberal (Original mail)
Thu Nov 26, 2020, 03:25 AM
38. National polls have a history of being off.
In 1980, the national polls, at best, had Reagan slightly leading Carter. He won in a surprise landslide.
In 1996, the national polls had Clinton beating Dole 51-35 (the terminal CNN/U.s.a. Today tracking poll of that election). He won assuredly but nowhere near the size the polls suggested.
In 2012, the national polls had Obama basically tied with Romney and Obama won by a fairly comfy four-points.
In 2016, the national polls were actually adequately correct.
Information technology's time we realize there's a consistent polling mistake and while it doesn't show upwardly in every election, it has proven to be at that place for previous elections.
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Response to NRaleighLiberal (Original mail)
Thu Nov 26, 2020, 09:09 AM
39. I'grand still surprised at how wrong Florida was. And how Biden underperformed compared to Hillary
Has Florida become a state that can no longer be polled? Did slow mail (undelivered postal service) crusade that much of a departure? Or take Cuban-American'south fallen off the deep end? Will Cuban-Americans at present vote more consistently with hillbillies than other Castilian speaking groups? If so, how odd.
The polls in Michigan were fairly shut. Mayhap polling has to be considered/measured different in each region.
I was consistently polled via text from mid-summer through the final weekend of the election. The questions each time were pretty much the same, as were my responses.
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Response to NRaleighLiberal (Original mail service)
Thu Nov 26, 2020, 09:eighteen AM
40. It'south shame, not alienation
For a lot of people, it's not "polite" to admit that you lot voted for a racist. You're likewise ashamed to admit it or have your Christianity or morality exist undermined past your voting choices. It'due south the hypocrisy they're afraid others volition observe out about. It'due south not a good look for a christian to hate the black man.
They'll tell pollsters 'God loves all his children, even the black ones' and "I would never vote for a racist."
And so in the secrecy of the polling booth, they'll pull the lever for Jesse Helms.
These are fucking cowards.
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